“The Potential Health Care Costs And Resource Use Associated With COVID-19 In The United States,” by Sarah M. Bartsch, et al., Health Affairs
“With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, one of the major concerns is the burden COVID-19 will impose on the United States (U.S.) health care system. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model representing the U.S. population and what can happen to each person who gets infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2). We estimate resource use and direct medical costs per infection and at the national level, with various “attack rates” (infection rates) to understand the potential economic benefits of reducing the burden of the disease. A single symptomatic COVID-19 infection would cost a median of $3,045 in direct medical costs incurred only during the course of the infection. Eighty percent of the U.S. population getting infected could result in a median of 44.6 million hospitalizations, 10.7 million ICU admissions, 6.5 million ventilators used, and 249.5 million hospital bed days, costing $654.0 billion in direct costs over the course of the pandemic. If 20% were to become infected, there would be a median of 11.2 million hospitalizations, 62.3 million hospital bed days, and 1.6 million ventilators used, costing $163.4 billion.”
LTC Comment (from Stephen A. Moses, President, Center for Long-Term Care Reform):
Early attempt to estimate the impact of Covid-19 on national health care expenditures. Very little about long-term care impact.